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Executive members of COST Action ES1002:
- Chair: Alain Heimo, CH (alain.heimo(+)meteotest.ch)
- Vice-chair: Anna Maria Sempreviva, IT (am.sempreviva(+)isac.cnr.it)
- WG1 Chair: George Kariniotakis, FR (georges.kariniotakis(+)mines-paristech.fr)
- WG1 Vice-chair: David Pozo-Vazquez, ES (dpozo(+)ujaen.es)
- WG2 Chair: Foeke Kuik, NL (foeke.kuik(+)telvent.com)
- WG2 Vice-chair: Sven Erik Gryning (sveg(+)dtu.dk)
- WG3 Chair: Gregor Giebel, DK (gregor.giebel(+)risoe.dk)
- WG3 Vice-chair: Lourdes Ramirez, ES (lramirez(+)cener.com)
- Action Secretary: Alessandra Liberto, NL (alessandra.liberto(+)telvent.com)
- Grant Holder: René Cattin, CH (rene.cattin(+)meteotest.ch)
- Action Rapporteur: Zoltan Dunkel, HU (dunkel.z(+)met.hu)
- Scientific Officer: Basak Kisakurek, ESSEM (Earth System Science & Environmental Management) (Basak.Kisakurek(+)cost.eu)
The work that will be performed in this COST Acton has been broken down into 3 types of activities, to be carried out by 3 working groups:
- Working Group 1: Power forecast
Working group (WG1) will deal with the post-processing aspects with the following priorities:
- Defining methods for the power forecast coming from best estimates of solar and wind atmospheric parameters input, taking into account the requirements of the different time domains, 0-3 hours, 3–6 hours, and 6-72 hours:
- Definitions of the different techniques (statistical analysis, fuzzy logic...) used for the power forecast.
- Definition of the inputs in terms of NWP and real-time observations,
- Definitions of the required output parameters (wind speed, solar radiation, cloud information, temperature, humidity...)
- Evaluation of NWP models and satellite estimates. Definition of forecasting domains (nowcasting: 0-3 hrs, short-term forecast: 3.6 hrs, forecast: 6-72 hrs)
- Validation of forecasts jointly with WG2.
In the first phase of the project it is necessary to perform a critical assessment of past and present research activities in different countries and of current knowledge gaps (State-of-the-Art, SOTA). This has to highlight the existing weaknesses for all components of the renewable energy forecast system. In particular, it will allow evaluating the adequacy of numerical weather models coupled with dedicated power conversion modules to deliver accurate power production forecasts. Furthermore, the potential of downscaling models towards higher spatial resolution will be analyzed in order to evaluate its impact when combined with appropriate post-processing applications. If proved necessary, the project will promote the development of downscaling methodologies adapted to the need of wind and solar energy applications.
- Working Group 2: Measurements and Observations
The further development of power forecasting models including additional observations has to be taken on. In particular, it has to be assessed how including ground-based observations and (satellite) remote sensing technologies will improve the quality of the production forecasts. The Cost Action will explore the technological and scientific requests for using remote sensing information at the post-processing level for such purposes and provide recommendations. In particular, it will assess the different ground-based remote sensing systems such as:
o weather radars, cloud radars, ceilometers, Total Sky Imagers, pyrgeometers, and combinations of these systems;
o wind profilers and LIDARs for the wind speed and direction fields, or combinations of them;
o LIDAR and micro-wave systems for the determination of Liquid Water Content LWC (and possibly the Particle Size Distribution PSD) of the boundary layer - presently products of the model itself – which are required for improving the high resolution models.
The results of these post-processing improved forecasting systems will be evaluated and validated. It is the intention that in the COST project existing wind farm and solar energy plant locations are selected for the verification. Observations instruments have to be present or installed. It is also foreseen that additional ad-hoc measurements at wind and solar power plants will be used together with meteorological networks. A database containing the validation data will be set up and appropriately formatted for direct use by the modelers’ community.
- Working Group 3: Power Plants and Electrical Grid Management
Finally, the development of improved forecasting systems will be done in cooperation with end users in order to guarantee a good match between the scientific developments and the user needs. A tentative implementation of the forecasts into the operational strategies of the power plants and electrical grid operators will be evaluated. At this point, it is required to establish a high level interdisciplinary collaboration between science and industry. Secondary specific applications, such as the influence of “thermal rating” for power lines at selected test sites will also be performed.
The Action will deliver a final report and recommendations. The dissemination of the results at international and national conferences, workshops and training schools will be valuable tools to support enhanced collaboration between science and industry.
The Cost Action will be executed in a 4 year period divided into:
Phase I (year 1):
- Organization of a “kick-off” workshop dedicated to the assessment of the requirements of the users’ community and to the definition of the planed methodologies.
- Assessment of past and present research activities in this field: State-of-the-Art publication
Phase II (year 2 & 3):
- Integration of National Research and Demonstration activities according to the scientific programme.
- Active participation to related conferences and workshops. Active participation to related international projects.
- Organization of a mid-term workshop.
- First steps towards the preparation of a more comprehensive R&D project at the European level based on the results of the present COST Action.
Phase III (year 4):
- Final report with conclusions and recommendations
- Final workshop.